kellogg ai navy data-science failure coronavirus intelligence r strategy teams 2019 2020 auto-industry base-rate chollet covid covid-19 crisis crozier cybertruck defense dod ecc elon-musk enron entrepreneurship eod exponential-growth family future goals guam iq jaic leadership metrics negotiation netflix predictions streaming target-market tensility-venture-partners tesla tyler-cowen type-i/ii-errors vc